It's Nitish vs Rahul in 2014

This statement was on the expected line, with script well written in advance at 1, Anne Marg. JD(U) spokesperson and Rajya Sabha MP, Shivanand Tiwari’s criticism of Narendra Modi’s fast came as no surprise to political pundits. Tiwari cleverly chose the same phrase which former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee used on April 4, 2002 suggesting Modi to follow the ethics of governance. Tiwari said, “Modi had failed to discharge raj dharma in Gujarat.” He further questioned the partisan approach adopted by the Modi government in delivering justice to the 2002 riot victims. “When he can't do justice to five crore people in a state, how can he do justice to 125 crore in the country?", said Tiwari. JD(U) president Sharad Yadav also took a dig on Modi’s fast by saying that, "it has become a fashion for people to go on fast."

Old rivals
It is not that Narendra Modi is ignorant of the fact that he has a tough competition or to say only competition from Nitish Kumar. From time to time, Modi has shown conciliatory gesture towards Bihar CM but Nitish has remained unmoved by such moves. Immediately after the devastating Kosi floods of 2008, Gujarat was the first state to send aid to Bihar. But after an advertisement published in Bihar dailies purportedly by Modi, claiming Gujarat had donated liberally to Bihar after Kosi floods, Nitish quickly signed a Rs. 5 crore cheque returning aid to Gujarat with full media hoopla. The second controversy added more fuel to the already existing fire with the publication of Kumar’s photograph with that of Narendra Modi in another advertisement. Nitish got irked and canceled the dinner party he had thrown for the BJP’s leaders at his residence. Nitish in no way wanted to be seen along with Modi so much so that he said strict “no” to Narendra Modi’s campaigning in Bihar during the 2010 state polls.

Advantage Nitish
More than the personal rivalry it’s Nitish’s compulsion not to be seen standing along with “communal” Modi. Though not enough numerical strength in the House, but Lalu Yadav’s RJD is still a force to reckon with. RJD’s Muslim-Yadav combination formed bulk of the vote bank on which Lulu directly or by proxy ruled the state for 15-years. In spite of being an alliance partner with the BJP, Nitish during his six-year rule has kept his secular image intact and further has dented RJD’s Muslim votes. The Bihar chief minister has successfully projected himself as a moderate, secular and progressive leader who believes that any association with Modi would adversely impact his secular appeal and further his ambition for the top job at South Block.

Now coming back to Shivanand Tiwari’s jibe, let’s enquire into what actually prompted the statement at this juncture when elections are 3-years away. Modi’s fast in no way was hurting Nitish’s secular credentials. Nitish by avoiding Ahmadabad had already sent strong message to the minorities that he by no means supports Modi and his fast. But that was not enough. Spin masters in Patna must have realised that mere abstinence won’t help much. A strong and open missive to secular forces was need of the hour, so that no doubt remains that, who stands where. In short, Nitish wants to see himself as a rallying point for non-congress forces in a post election scenario in 2014. Anti-BJP clamour is also growing in JD(U) with some senior leaders suggesting Nitish to snap ties with the BJP.

Where Modi looses
Firstly, Modi’s Prime Ministerial ambition will not go unchallenged within his own party. 84-year-old, L.K. Advani is still nurturing Prime Ministerial ambition. This octogenarian is still rocking and will very soon embark on a new Rath yatra. Then comes Sushma Swaraj, Jaitley, Ananth Kumar and Venkaiah Naidu, collectively called the Delhi Four ( D4). Though, a Sanghi at core, Gadkari also adds to distance between Modi and his PM candidature within the BJP. Modi is distant six in the list of PM candidates in his own party. For a moment let’s assume that RSS will vociferously push Modi’s candidature, but will it do at the cost of antagonising other senior leaders in the list. Further, even if under RSS’ pressure Modi is projected as the candidate for the top job, will the already depleted NDA’s composition be the same as we see it today? JD(U) which after BJP will bring the maximum number of seats will be the first party to dump the alliance. Many others will follow for sure.

Nitish the PM
Like US, in India we don’t have approval rating mechanism. So let’s rely on the “most definitive” mood of the nation survey conducted by India Today during August this year. The India Today poll reflects, “corruption to be the single biggest reason for the erosion in support of the UPA government.” The finding of the India Today poll gives 29% votes to the UPA, 27% votes to the NDA and 44% votes to the others if elections take place today. UPA is still 2% above the NDA despite “earth shattering” allegations of corruption against the incumbent. The situation will more or less remain the same in 2014 as experts feel that worst is over for the government and spin masters are out in damage control mode. Or even if the government’s fortune goes further down it won’t add to NDA votes. This situation will give impregnable lead to Nitish Kumar, the favourite poster boy of development and secularism.