Dilli Dur Ast

Why Third Front is an idea with very little practicality, and most often no production viability

It’s a chair everyone wants to sit and fit in. So, it was not surprising when India Today magazine got the issue on its cover page. The story titled, “Will UPA survive this summer?” ponders upon various permutations & combinations around the new government formation. The issue has come to the forefront after drabbing performance by the incumbent UPA (read Congress) government in the recently held state polls. Despite prime minister brushing aside possibility of mid-term election, the political circle is abuzz with possibility of snap polls. Congress at this juncture definitely doesn’t wants to jump into poll fray, same for the BJP. With two of the biggest national parties unwilling to test their mandate at this juncture, regional forces have started indulging in the fantasy of a third alternative in the prevailing mood of the nation.

Indulging in fantasy of Third Front is not new in country’s politics. We saw it just before the 2009 general elections, when political pundits almost made UPA sit in the opposition. Several compromising candidates for the Prime Ministerial job were popped-up, ranging from Dalit leaders Ram Vilas Paswan and Mayawati to OBC stalwart Sharad Yadav. Later UPA without support from left and with help from other regional allies including DMK and TMC came to power. The dream died in its bud.

Almost all the regional satraps foresaw the results of assembly elections. No surprising, much in advance, they declined to toe Congress’ line on various issues including Lokpal Bill, the provisions of NCTC, the FDI and others. Regional cards were played with full acumen; issues of federalism vs. centre’s control were popped up. Naveen Patnaik was seen drafting letter on Mamata’s behalf over NCTC issue and Nitish Kumar and Jayalalitha joining the axis under West Bengal CM’s leadership. Taking Mamata on-board gave some definite edge to the possibility of what was in the store. And the possible die was cast on 6^th of March, when results stated pouring in from various states. Congress, except Uttarakhand and Manipur, was the clear loser. Party’s expectations were dashed, the party was on back foot. Decimated Congress boosted this desperate group of would be PMs, sticking together just to be in the power. Return of Mulayam Singh Yadav in UP, who earlier served as Defence Minister, in HD Deve Gowda led similar front, boosted their confidence. And after the return of the Akali Dal-BJP combine in Punjab, talk of a new federal front has only intensified.

Third Front is not an alien concept to Indian politics. The Janta Party was the first non-Congress party which came to power in Delhi and since then India has seen five experiments on the line. None of these experiments were based on majority by the coalition partners. If we look at the numbers garnered by these parties in the current Lok Sabha, their combined strength adds up to 222, minus the BJP, which falls short of the 50% mark. It is also obvious that many of these parties, such as DMK and the AIADMK or the SP and BSP can’t see eye to eye. So the rational figure goes further down to less than 100 seats, impossible to offer a viable alternative.

There is a bigger inherent weakness which is glossed over when the going is good (i.e., when the romance is at an early stage) and which rears up in an ugly fashion when the honeymoon is over. Each of these regional chieftains is ambitious, i.e., they would all like to be prime minister. Their logic is—if someone like Deve Gowda, a complete outsider to national politics can make it as a compromise candidate (ditto for I.K. Gujral) why not me, who runs a state government and can deliver a handful of Lok Sabha seats? In this too many chiefs, not enough Indians situation, the ambitions of these regional bosses will cancel each other out.

Also the contention that regional parties are losing is not supported by outcome of recent polls. Both in UP and Punjab, the Congress’ vote share went up.

This will not stop the Third Front idea from gaining traction, because that is propelled by an antipathy towards the Congress and suspicion of the BJP. And given the peculiarities of our system, a minority government could, with some informal help from outside, come to power, even if its durability would remain suspect. But the cheerleaders of yet another front would do well not to get overexcited; Delhi is still far away.