Sunday, December 21, 2014

BJP all set to form govt. in Delhi, says India Today-Ciesaro Opinion poll

Rajiv Kumar
New Delhi: It seems as if the people of Delhi are in no mood to give Arvind Kejriwal led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) a second chance. This is revealed in a India Today- Ciesaro Opinion poll. According to it BJP with 39% of votes will get anything between 34 to 40 seats in the 70-member Assembly.

With 36% votes Aam Aadmi Party is projected to have a tally of anything between 25 to 31 seats. Congress comes a poor third and is predicted to garner 16% of the votes and win 3-5 seats, down three from the polls held last year. Others are projected to bag 0 to 2 seats with 9% of the vote share.

BJP is the first choice for 39% of the under 25 year voters while 38% of them prefers the Aam Aadmi Party. Only 16% respondents up to 25 years prefer the Congress.

Among female respondents 39% are likely to vote for the BJP while for 36% Arvind Kejriwal led Aam Aadmi Party will be the first choice. Only 17% would like to vote for the Congress.

While 39% of the (all age) male respondents of the India Today- Ciesaro Opinion poll preferred BJP to lead the next government in the national capital, 36% prefer Aam Aadmi Party. Only 16% male respondents looked forward to vote for the Congress party.

In rural areas of Delhi both BJP and AAP are going neck-and-neck with 34% of the respondents preferring the BJP and 33% the Aam Aadmi Party. Congress lags at third with 16% people's choice.

The survey finding shows more affinity for the BJP in Delhi's upper/upper-middle class localities with 45% of the respondents preferring the party while 39% of the people in these areas may go for the Aam Aadmi Party.

The issues remains the same as they were during the Lok Sabha polls earlier this year. Even after six months of Narendra Modi led NDA government coming to power in Delhi on the plank of corruption, the issue remains on the top of electorate's mind with 21% still feeling that is the single most important issue. Announcements on women's security have failed to secure the fairer sex and failed to comfort the Delhi's voters with 17% feeling women's  safety remains a key issue. 15% of the respondents felt that water scarcity is the most important issue while 12% feel it's the price rise. Only 10% of the respondent feel that electricity supply is a major poll issue.

Even after facing allegations of running away rather than running the government after just 49 days AAP convenor Arvind Kejriwal remains the most-preferred choice for chief ministerial candidate, with 35% respondents rooting for him. BJP’s Harsh Vardhan is a distant runner up with 19% support. Only 9% of the respondents of the India Today- Ciesaro Opinion poll expressed their confidence in former chief minister Sheila Dikshit, followed by Arvinder Lovely (8%) of the Congress.

As per this opinion poll, 34% of the respondents surveyed believe that Modi sarkar has ushered in acche din and his government's performance so far has exceeded their expectations while 33% believe Narendra Modi government has performed as per their expectations. Only 22% of the respondents believe BJP government at the centre has so far not met their expectations.

About two-third (67%) respondents of the India Today- Ciesaro Opinion poll said they were satisfied with the work done by Arvind Kejriwal during his 49-day tenure. This may be the reason why he is still favoured for the CM’s post. While 35% of them felt Arvind Kejriwal led Aam Aadmi Party government's performance exceeded expectations, 32% felt his government did fine. Just 22% felt let down by the 49 days of Kejriwal's rule in Delhi.

About three-fourth (74%) of the of the respondents of this poll give credit to prime minister Narendra Modi for energising the otherwise snail paced administration at the same time 48% say Modi has failed to keep his promises. On the diplomacy front 62% of the respondent surveyed gave full marks to PM Modi diplomatic efforts and feel Narendra Modi as PM has lifted the status of India across the world.

While 56% of the respondents see Narendra Modi as a strong and decisive leader who is fulfilling the promises he made, 35% feel he is self-centred and is not bothered about the country.

With much fanfare Narendra Modi launched his flagship national level campaign Swachh Bharat on October 2 this year with an aim to accomplish the vision of 'Clean India' by 2 October 2019, 150th birthday of Mahatma Gandhi. But about half i.e. 46% of the respondents of the India Today- Ciesaro Opinion poll don't see it as a genuine effort to clean India and believe it is just a show-off.

The allegation and commonly held belief that Aam Aadmi Party isn't yet ready to run a government reflects in this opinion poll as well with more than half (53%) of the respondents agreeing that Kejriwal led AAP hasn't matured enough to govern. While 60 % of the respondent surveyed agreed to what AAP is claiming - that corruption declined during its 49-days rule, 51% feel AAP cheated people by fleeing from responsibility of running the government.

While 55% of the respondents of this poll want to give Arvind Kejriwal led AAP party government another chance, 54% believe Arvind Kejriwal was more interested in protests rather than governing. 60% of the people of agree to what Arvind Kejriwal is claiming - that AAP government brought down rates of water and power.

Corruption was the main poll plank of BJP in the Lok Sabha polls and the ITG-CICERO poll outcome says it is still there to nail Congress with 70% of the respondents saying Congress is the most corrupt party. On other most nagging issues for Congress, nepotism and internal divisions, the situation is no better either. 51% of the respondents feel Congress promotes nepotism while 37% see it as a divided faction-ridden house.

On the question of developing Delhi, 39% of the respondents say AAP can deliver better in providing electricity, water and ensuring good roads while BJP is close second to AAP on overall development of Delhi with 36% of the respondents going with AAP than 35% staying with BJP. On keeping inflation in check, 44% of the respondents chose AAP while 40% of them felt AAP was best equipped to ensure women safety, the most important social issue that has given Delhi a negative name globally, crime against women.

On 'who should form the next government in Delhi', 42% favoured a BJP government but, on the flip side, 44% said BJP should not be given the chance. According to the ITG-CICERO poll, AAP should form the next government in Delhi with 47% respondents opting to give the Kejriwal party a chance. Here also, the misery for Congress continues, with a huge 63% of the respondents saying the party doesn't stand a chance to form the next government in the Indian Capital.


The opinion poll was conducted by India Today- Ciesaro. Sampling size achieved was 4273 respondents in 70 assembly constituencies and 210 polling stations.

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