BJP projected to win 34-40 seats in Delhi: India Today-Cicero opinion poll

Rajiv Kumar

New Delhi January 12, 2015:BJP is all set to make a comeback in Delhi after more than 16 years, while Arvind Kejriwal led Aam Admi Party (AAP) is likely to be close second according to the latest round (Round 2) of the India Today Group-Cicero opinion poll. The biggest loser as per the opinion poll will be the Congress party, which is likely to see further decline in its fortune.

VOTE SHARE

The survey findings show that BJP is likely to get 40 percentage point of votes, an improvement of about 7 percent compared to its December 2013 Assembly poll performance. Aam Aadmi Party is expected to get 36 percent of votes, against its previous 2013 performance when it got 29.4 percent of votes, a gain 6.5 percentage point. Congress' fortunes continue to decline with the party sliding further down to finish by garnering 16 percent of votes, down 8.5 percent compared to its December 2013 performance. Others are expected to score 9 percent of votes.

SEAT FORECAST

As per the opinion poll, BJP is likely to get 34-40 seats, an improvement from its 2013 performance, when it got 31 seats. Though Aam Aadmi Party is expected to gain its vote share but this gain may not translate into party's seat share, with party projected to win anything between 25-31 seats. Congress is likely to win 3-5 seats, down from 8 seats it won in December 2013 poll, and Others between 0-2 seats, as per the latest round of the India Today Group-Cicero opinion poll.

BIGGEST POLL ISSUES

The issues remains the same as they were during the Lok Sabha polls in 2014. Though Narendra Modi's government has made many announcement on women security front yet the issue remains a key issue with 20 percent of respondents giving it maximum weightage. The NDA government in centre came to power on the plank of corruption yet 17 percent of Delhiete polled still feel that it remains an important issue. 12 percent of the respondents felt that water scarcity is the most important issue while 10 percent feel it's the price rise.

CHALLENGES FOR THE NEW GOVT

On being asked as to what will be the biggest challenge for the new government, 39 percent of the respondents of the India Today Group-Cicero opinion poll feel basic civic issues like electricity, road and water will be the most difficult task for the incoming government. 33 percent feel, it will be on the law & order front while 15 percent feel it will be health and education. Only 6 percent of the respondents surveyed feel Narendra Modi's flagship mission cleanliness is an important issue in Delhi, and transport facilities coming last with just 3 percent of the respondents feel that it will be a challenge for whoever comes to power in Delhi.

MOST PREFERRED CM

Even after facing allegations of running away rather than running the government after just 49 days, AAP convenor Arvind Kejriwal remains the most-preferred choice for chief ministerial candidate, with 35 percent respondents rooting for him. BJP’s Harsh Vardhan is a distant runner up with 23 percent support. Only 6% of the respondents of the India Today- Cicero Opinion poll expressed their confidence in former chief minister Sheila Dikshit, followed by Arvinder Lovely (5 percent) of the Congress. Delhi BJP president finished fifth with just 5 percent votes, followed by Congress' Ajay Maken and BJP's Jagdish Mukhi, 4 percent each.

PERFORMANCE OF MODI GOVT.

The performance of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government at the Centre is expected to have more impact on the polls in Delhi than anywhere else in the country. Asked to rate the performance of the Narendra Modi-led government, 36 percent felt it was performing beyond expectations while 30 percent felt it was meeting their expectations. However, as many as 25 percent felt the central government was underperforming.

PERFORMANCE OF 49 DAY AAP RULE

Even though the AAP did not emerge as the first choice to form the government in Delhi, about 36 percent of respondents surveyed felt its debut attempt at running the government in the national capital exceeded expectations. This may be the reason why he is still favoured for the CM’s post. Around 35 percent people felt that the 49-day-long government ruled as per expectations, while 20 percent felt they were let down by Kejriwal.

METHODOLOGY:-

The opinion poll was conducted by India Today- Cicero between Jan 2-6, 2015. Sampling size achieved was 4459 respondents in 70 assembly constituencies and 210 polling stations.